“NHS Crisis Looming”

Over the summer months, the NHS has regularly been in the news headlines again with one problem after another.  Here are two recent examples:- “Thousands have surgery cancelled at last minute” (The Times – 15th August) “Dementia care lottery exposed” (Daily Mail – 16th August) There are many more stories in the media about hospitals under pressure; extended waiting times at A & E; reduction of health services and threatened closure of departments due to cuts in budgets. BUT, the headline that caught my eye most was in The Times on the 12th August:-

“NHS crisis deepens as bed blocking costs £6 billion”

You would think this would herald a great debate.  After all £6 billion is a lot of money.  To quote from the article again, the situation was:- “pushing hospitals to breaking point” “tens of thousands of patients experienced delay in being discharged” “A & E waiting times for June were the worst ever” “the shortage of emergency doctors was leading to a real crisis” “ambulance response times failed to meet the required standard” “cancer care waiting times also missed their targets” Fortunately a week later, The Times printed this retraction, albeit in a very small front page paragraph which would be easily overlooked:- “We said in a front page report that bed blocking costs the NHS £6 billion a year.  Official estimates put the costs at £820 million.  We apologise for the serious error”.

So that’s alright then!

The fact that nobody was alarmed, either by the headline or the crisis situation that was described in the article beneath, should tell us a lot about the way the NHS is perceived today.  Everyone knows that the total cost of the NHS is astronomical and a few billion pounds being lost in one way or another is accepted as small change.  Equally nobody seems to be alarmed about the dramatic descriptions about the crisis in the NHS since we all seem to feel that little can be done about it. The very fact that other parts of the media didn’t instantly correct the Times’ miscalculation, says much about the way that they too have given up on controlling the black hole that NHS finances had become. It all reinforces the myth that older people are causing the problem in the NHS because not only do they get ill, but when they are eventually hospitalised, they stay in for far too long.  Perhaps “society” thinks that older people enjoy their stays in hospital so much that they would like to extend their holiday away from home.

hospital2

None of this makes sense but neither do alarmist headlines in The Times.

Posted in N.H.S. | 2 Comments

It’s your funeral 😄

Buying a funeral plan is a way of making sure there is  enough money to pay for your last big send off yourself, rather than leaving the bill to be picked up by unhappy relatives when you are gone.   Especially if you want to go out in style, you know — wheeled carriages, four black horses, stretch limos full of hundreds of weeping Facebook flash mob friends, loud speakers outside the church for the overflow audience of clapping fans  who never knew you …….. and flowers lots of flowers.    A modest respectful sort of funeral😢

Last year 183,500 funeral plans were taken out, which is a 25% increase on the year before.  Sounds like death is a growing business. On average a plan costs £3,550.   Not sure that includes a round of drinks at the wake ?

Funeral costs are rising rapidly and are forecast to double in the next 10 years.     So buy you plan while you can!

It pays to shop around, so why not start at your local supermarket —- ASDA has a funeral plan although at the check out they prefer to call it ‘life insurance’.    Speak to the check out lady when you next get your weekly  groceries.

If you don’t shop at ASDA then try the Co-op, they are the UK’s brand leader when it comes to funeral send offs.     They have 1200 outlets (sorry, funeral parlours) in the UK and if you purchase on-line you get a £100 discount on you funeral plan.   They have bronze, silver and gold plans, which is certain to create an argument amongst  your relatives 😄.       I wonder if you can also use your Co-op green stamps  for the final payment ?

Another option, particularly if you want to ascend in a puff of smoke into the clouds (although Heaven is not a guaranteed destination for everyone) is to use Dignity,  the UK’s  largest owner of crematoria.   Not to be confused with Dignitas which includes a final trip to Switzerland.    Dignity operate on a gargantuan scale — 39 crematoriums throughout the UK, 750 funeral directors and a further 400 ‘vetted’ directors, so your pets can come too.   In their advertising, they pride themselves on the fact that “98% of their customers would recommend them to friends and relatives”.    That must be clear evidence that there is life after death.

One last thing on this sombre subject.    Apparently we are running out of land for burials. So it rather looks like I will have to have that ostentatious Viking burning-boat-burial at sea after all.

viking

Better take out the “luxury tailored funeral plan”. 😄

Posted in Grey Products | 6 Comments

“Bungalow conflation”

I have never had a conflation before, but it is a trendy word to use, which is in the news a lot recently, so hear goes.   My last two blogs have been about the planners restrictions on building houses and the desire of many older people to retire to a bungalow.    Let’s try and conflate these two ideas.   The planners want higher density housing to limit the need for building on green field sites, which directly conflicts with the demand from older people for more bungalows.    Indeed the last thing the planners would want is lots of bungalows dotted all over the place😟     How about we turn the bungalow aspirations into large specially designed retirement flats, with level access throughout and lifts to all other floors.    Then add a range of facilities on your doorstep, including a shop, a coffee bar and some activity spaces.   That way you will have plenty to do, rather than being isolated in the country.   Let’s call it a retirement village !   Better still locate it in the town where you already live.    That way you will still be close to your family and friends and the planners will be able to keep their green belt.    So everyone will be happy 😄😄😄😄😄😄😄😄😄😄 and heave a lot more fun in retirement !

ferris2

Conflation is not a bad idea !

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | 5 Comments

“Bungalow Heaven”

I was reflecting on my last blog “Bungalow Wild Goose Chase” and wondered what would happen if we turned everything on its head and did what the customers want e.g. build bungalows everywhere?

One of the arguments against building bungalows is that they take up too much land, often in the Green Belt.  The reality is that there is lots of land lying fallow.  We are even subsidising some farmers to keep it unused to encourage more habitat for wildlife.  How about if we put the needs of older people ahead of the birds and bees.

We would have to loosen the Green Belt around our cities and towns, but there again, you often have to let out a notch or two on your belt as you get older.

Planners would have to undo lots of the restrictions they have built up over the years.  Rather than stopping development, they should be encouraging it, if we are going to solve our housing shortage.

Factory built homes could be quickly dropped down on green fields requiring minimal extensions to infrastructure.  No new schools, nor new shopping centres.  Maybe just a corner shop and a village hall.

Bungalow Heaven 1

The land value problem would be overcome if farmers were only paid a slight uplift on the agricultural value of their land.  No doubt there would be opposition to this, but it is only how it used to be before planners and Governments interfered.

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | 3 Comments

“Bungalow Wild Goose Chase”

A bungalow is the dream retirement home of many older people.

I first wrote a blog about downsizing in 2012 when Grant Shapps, then a newly appointed Housing Minister announced a bold new initiative to encourage the elderly to move to smaller homes.  (Click on 31 Jan 2012 in the ARCHIVE to read it).  Needless to say, nothing came of it.

Then a year and a half later the press had another little frenzy about the need for thousands more bungalows to be built.  (See “Bungalow Mindset” and “Bungalow Metaphor” by clicking in the ARCHIVE on September 2013), but still no more bungalows we built!

A year later and another new Housing Minister launches another bold initiative or maybe it is just the same old useless idea dusted off again.  (See “Bungalow Brandon” in the ARCHIVE – January 2014), but even less bungalows were built as a result!

Now bungalows are back in the news again, another gullible journalist in the Daily Mail – 26th July 2016, yet again lamented the shortage of bungalows for downsizers.  The article was almost word for word taken from a survey by “My Home Move” a Leicester based group of conveyancers.

In a survey of 1,000 over 55’s considering a move, more than half wanted a property which was easier to manage and a fifth wanted to release equity from their current home.  These are the two main reasons downsizers want to move, but the difficulty is there are generally few options available.

It is estimated that there are 2.85 million over 55’s who would like to move to a smaller home, and half of these want a bungalow.  Herein lies the problem!   There will never be enough bungalows to satisfy the demand.

Land prices have rocketed in the last 30 years, and Government policy has focussed on starter homes and family houses.  Bungalows are the rocking chair on the porch image in many peoples’ minds for their retirement years.  But it is not at all realistic for most people.

Here are some facts on the subject:-

  • In 1985, 28,000 new bungalows were built;
  • Last year only 2,500 were built;
  • Just 1 in 63 of all new homes.

The financial reality is that housing developers need to build higher density housing to achieve a reasonable profit.  So the wishful thinking of customers, Governments, Estate Agents and conveyancers will only lead to unfilled dreams.

Bungalow Wild Goose Chase

We need an ambitious and realistic new policy for retirement housing, but it cannot be based on bungalows.

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | 4 Comments

“My Little Tin Box”

When I was young we didn’t have a lot of money and I remember my mum used to have a tin box on the mantlepiece where she saved money for the rent, the insurance, Christmas, my school uniform – a never-ending list of things to save up for.  We never bought things on tic.   Saving was bred into us.

When I was old enough I had my own piggy bank to save up for stamps to add to my stamp collection.    Later it was to save up for a Dawes racing bike.   It took me a year to save up for that bike, using the money from my paper round.

tin box

The little tin box and my piggy bank instilled in me the idea that you have to earn your money before you spend it.     Sadly, that’s not the way of the world today.   You are encouraged to have what you want, when you want it.    You can pay for it later.

You’re inevitably drawn into that world when you buy your first home.   Taking out a mortgage makes you a borrower for years to come.   Now too, you have a bank to look after your savings, no need for the little tin box anymore.    Money starts to move around at the stroke of a pen or the swipe of a bank card.    There are no pennies to look after, just a bank balance.   The visual link between cash and reality is easily lost.

The little tin box paid no interest and now the banks seem to be doing the same.   All of which confirms that the saving culture in our society has all but disappeared.

Let’s hope there are no rainy days ahead.

Posted in Economy | 3 Comments

“ARCO Conference – Regulation”

This is my fourth report from the ARCO conference – July 2016. (See my earlier blogs “ARCO Conference Demographics”, “ARCO Conference Dementia” and ARCO Conference Marketing” in the archive dated July/August 2016.)

Regulation

The discussion on this subject was made up of a number of talks which embraced not just regulation but also funding models.   It’s the use of different charging approaches, many of which can be difficult to understand, that has led to the increased interest of the regulators.

The first problem is that there is no clear definition of where retirement communities fit in to the historical regulatory structures.   Many of the providers use different models and different terminology to describe their provision, but at the same time there are significant overlaps between providers.  This make comparison of schemes difficult.

The size and shape of schemes provided by different developers varies enormously.   As do the level of services offered.   This all makes it doubly difficult for the Regulators to see how accommodation provided by the ARCO members should be regulated.  The Care Quality Commission has in the past been preoccupied with residential care homes.  More recently they have broadened their remit to include hospital accommodation and at the other end of the spectrum, domiciliary care provided to people in their own homes.

Although many retirement housing and care providers now go beyond the provision of sheltered housing, they generally stop short of providing 24/7 care.   This means that essentially they are only providing domiciliary care to a limited number of residents, who continue to live in their own homes.

The Regulator seems to have concluded that in these circumstances they only have a “domiciliary care” remit and should not be involved in the physical fabric of the homes themselves.

However, where things get more difficult, is when you start to look at how people are charged to live in this accommodation.    The different financial models have in some cases led to criticism and claims of exploitation by residents who have purchased homes without realising the financial commitments they were entering into.   This has attracted the attention of a different Regulator, namely The Law Commission.

Different providers have all sorts of different ways of maximizing their charge for a property.   There are a host of different terms used which come under the collective title of “Events Fees”.   These can include:-

  • “Exit Fees” or “Transfer Fees” – this refers to charges made when you leave the property either to move elsewhere or when you die.
  • “Deferred Management Charges” – these usually relate only to the deferred charge for planned maintenance which has the effect of lowering initial service charges.   Providers charge these out at different rates, some of which are seen as punitive.
  • “Assignment Fees” – this is a charge that goes to the freeholder whenever a property is sold on.  It is usually a charge of 1% of the purchase price although there seems little justification for this.
  • “Sub Letting Fees” – this is a charge if someone chooses not to live in the property but to let it to someone else, or more frequently perhaps to sub-let it if relatives are unable to sell the property after the owner’s death.  Again these are typically charged at 1% of the rental value.

There is more information about these charges in my earlier reviews of some retirement housing providers which you can find by clicking on RETIREMENT HOUSING in the TOPICS LIST and looking for Retirement Housing Reviews.

My observation on the whole of this subject is that there is little appetite by the Regulators for more regulations in the sector.   However, there needs to be much more transparency about charges, particularly those where there is an element of deferment until the property is resold.   As the market stands currently, it is wide open to exploitation by unscrupulous developers who have their eye on immediate returns rather than long-term value for money for their customers.

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | 2 Comments

“ARCO Conference – Marketing”

This is my third report from the ARCO conference – July 2016. (See my earlier blogs “ARCO Conference Demographics” and “ARCO Conference Dementia” in the archive dated July 2016.)

Marketing

This was an extremely interesting talk by Doctor Margaret Wylde, the Founder and CEO of Promatura Group – a marketing consultancy that specialises in retirement communities.   Her presentation focused on the large retirement communities that have developed in the USA over the last 25 years and her insights were drawn from the lessons of a mature market in the USA.

The next two slides say it all about some of the retirement communities in the USA.  The first slide is a retirement community developed by the Del Webb Corporation in 1960 in Sun City, Phoenix, Arizona.   It shows a host of individual houses built around a central hub of facilities, all designed for older people.

Sun City

However, that only shows half the story.  The slide below gives you the even bigger picture. Sun City is made up of a host of retirement communities, to the point where this particular community now houses 38,000 older people and covers an area of 37 square kilometres.

Sun City 2

The photograph looks lovely doesn’t it.  It makes a nice pattern from the air!  But I’m not sure I’d like to live there.  Talk about ghettos for the elderly, this must be the ultimate in ageing communities.   What’s more, the Del Webb Corporation has gone on to build many similar, albeit slightly smaller communities, in many other parts of the USA.   They have also been emulated by many other retirement community developers.

What it does illustrate is the enormous desire of many older people in America to cash in some of their wealth, downsize and move away from the big cities and into sunnier climes. It’s like the move many older people made in the UK, to relocate to places like Torquay and Brighton or for the more adventurous, to retire to the Costa Del Sol or the Costa Brava in Spain.

Everything in America is bigger and land is a heck of a lot cheaper.   I’m not sure we could learn too much from this experience other than what not to do.   That’s not to say that we shouldn’t build retirement communities in the UK, but they certainly are unlikely to ever reach the American scale.

Some of the key marketing messages, which are relevant however, are:-

  • Firstly, that it is the quality of lifestyle in the retirement community that creates customer satisfaction, not just the properties themselves;
  • Secondly, the premium on property purchase prices can be up to 30%;
  • Thirdly, don’t push service charges too high or risk losing 20% of the market;
  • Finally, there is a great desire for a new life in retirement, providing the options closely reflect the customers needs, which requires sophisticated market analysis.

More to follow in my next blogs.

 

 

 

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | 3 Comments

“ARCO Conference – Dementia”

This is my second report from the ARCO conference – July 2016.

Dementia

The first thing to say of the prominence of this discussion on the agenda is that it leads you to feel that beyond demographics, this was the most important issue facing retirement communities at the current time – which I don’t believe it is.   From a panel of experts, the most knowledgeable speaker on this topic was Jeremy Hughes who is the Chief Executive of the Alzheimer’s Society.   Understandably he wanted to raise the profile of this illness, given that 850,000 people in the UK are estimated to have dementia.  One third of these live in residential care homes with the majority still living in their own homes in the community.  Obviously Mr Hughes wanted to ensure that as much retirement housing as possible is made available to people with dementia.   Although they were not represented at the conference, this is very much the message reinforced by Social Service Departments who have to deal with dementia in the community and would very much like to refer many of the more difficult cases to retirement housing providers, particularly those providing extracare accommodation.

The three other panel speakers who represented retirement housing providers were keen to emphasise how they provided for, or should I say coped with, people with dementia in their schemes.   They all accepted that they would look after people who developed dementia whilst living in their schemes but were rather more circumspect about how much they welcomed new residents into their scheme who already had dementia.   One of the providers was very positive about the Alzheimer’s Society’s “Dementia Friends Initiative” which promoted the use of volunteers to support people with dementia.   Whilst this is a great initiative, it’s not, in my opinion, a substitute for paid carers.   The speaker from The ExtraCare Charitable Trust talked very positively about their Enriched Opportunities Programme which is led by Locksmiths.   This is a very innovative form of personalised support pioneered and funded by the charitable trust.   Only 11% of ExtraCare Charitable Trust residents are thought to have dementia.

I’ve written a lot about dementia over the years and you can find all my posts on the subject by clicking on DEMENTIA in the TOPICS list.   More specifically you can find my post on Dementia Friends by clicking in the ARCHIVE for the 27 Jan 2013 .   There is also an explanation of  the ExtraCare Charitable Trust model of the dementia support in the ARCHIVE dated 13 July 2011.  

The elephant in the room at the conference, with the whole of this discussion is that, in my opinion, retirement housing is not designed for dealing with people with dementia.   I say this having managed a number of nursing homes which specialised in caring for people with dementia.   Dementia is an illness that gets progressively worse and therefore, whilst its possible to cope with people in the early stages, the behavioural changes of many people in the later stages of dementia are rarely accepted by other residents in the community.   They can also require a disproportionate amount of staff time.

I’ve seen this happen twice before.  Firstly when I managed lots of sheltered housing schemes; when in a community of elderly people living independently in their own homes, as individuals developed dementia and were no longer able to cope on their own, there was reluctance from Social Services to provide support in anything other than critical cases.   Secondly in extracare schemes which had additional care staff, there was a tendency for Social Services to understate peoples’ dementia support needs when they referred people.   Over time, as peoples’ dementia progressed, the whole character of the scheme changed and became more like a residential care environment rather than an active retirement housing scheme.

It’s for these reasons that I think retirement housing providers should be very clear about the limits of their ability to look after people with dementia.   Failure to do this will mislead prospective residents, may raise expectations of care and support that can’t be delivered and ultimately lead to people having to move on in later life from a retirement community where they had hoped to age in place.

More to follow in my next blogs.

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | 3 Comments

“ARCO Conference – Demographics”

ARCO stands for Associated Retirement Community Operators.   It was formed in 2012 and is a diverse collection of providers of retirement housing in the UK.   They represent 27 operators who between them provide more than 50% of the current provision in the UK.   In July of this year I went to their first annual conference which was attended by nearly 300 other delegates all from around the UK.   This in itself is an indication of the substantial level of interest there is in this area.

The full conference programme papers have not yet been released so these are very much my first impressions of the discussions by the conference speakers.   It was an interesting programme with speakers from Brazil and America as well as the UK.   The main themes emerging from the conference topics were Demographics, Dementia, Marketing and Regulation.  I’ll talk about them in my next few blogs:-

Demographics

The keynote address was by Professor Alexandre Kalache, who is the Co-President of the International Longevity Centre Global Alliance.   He is also the former head of the World Health Organisation, Global Programme on Ageing.   The title of his speech was “Living Longer / Living Well” and that summed up the reality and hope of most of what he had to say.   It’s well-known that there is an ageing population in most of the developed countries in the Northern Hemisphere but less well appreciated that there is an increasingly aged population in China, Japan, India and Brazil.    Whilst people are living longer and healthier lives, many older people still live in poverty.   Loneliness and social isolation is a major issue for older people in many countries including our own.

One interesting fact he quoted was that “70% of US wealth is in the hands of baby boomers”.  Whilst this might seem like good news, it only is if they can convert their wealth into a tradeable resources to purchase support services and appropriate housing.   Professor Kalache was the instigator of the Age Friendly Cities initiatives which is intended to ensure that older people in their “golden years” have a happy life.   It’s yet to be seen whether this initiative achieves very much for people in later life.  (You can see in the TAG CLOUD by clicking on Age Friendly my earlier blogs on this subject).

His ending words of caution, which were no doubt coloured by his experience of the huge elderly populations living in poverty in Brazilian cities, but also by the very large retirement communities in places like the USA and elsewhere were:-

“Don’t build ghettos”

This seemed a rather strange thing to say to an audience of people whose desired intention is to build more retirement communities.   Nonetheless they are wise words which were repeated later in the conference by the speaker talking about marketing.

One final thing that the Professor did was to involve the audience.   We were asked how long we thought we would live and whilst a minority of people thought they would die before they reached 80, the majority thought they would die between and 80 and 90 years of age and a hopeful few thought they would live beyond this.   The Professor was able to confirm that the majority were correct.   His next question was more challenging when he asked what you were most likely to die from.   A few thought cancer, rather more thought Alzheimer’s would lead to their demise, some thought they were likely to die from a chronic illness such as congenital heart disease.   The majority hoped to die a sudden death from something like a heart attack or quietly pass away at home in their sleep.   This time the Professor had to disabuse the audience of their wishful thinking.    He confirmed that statistically only about 10% of people die a peaceful sudden death.   The majority of us are destined to die in hospital after a period of  illness.

The sobering message from this quick survey of professionals in the field of retirement housing is that our elderly customers generally do not set aside enough money to provide for care and support in their later years.   Nor indeed in the UK at least, does the pensions industry and insurance market provide appropriate financial products for end of life care.

More to follow in my next blogs.

Posted in RETIREMENT HOUSING | Tagged | 5 Comments