“Pension Crystal Ball” 2

Posted on October 16, 2012 by john graham

For the first blog on this issue, see “PENSION CRYSTAL BALL” 1 in the TAG CLOUD.

So, what can I see in my Pension Crystal Ball:-

Some things are very clear:-

  • Pension age is going to rise.  It was 60 for women and 65 for men.  By 2020 it will be 66 for men and women.  Then 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046.  By 2050 the state retirement age will be 70.  This has big implications for the young of today but no impact on existing pensioners.
  • Pension saving will become compulsory.  Currently almost half of working people are not saving enough and many save nothing at all.  The Government’s first move has been to introduce automatic enrolment in occupational pensions – its nest scheme but people can still opt out of this, and are obviously not included if they are unemployed.

The question is – will they save enough for a comfortable retirement or just enough to disqualify themselves from welfare benefit support.  The lowest paid workers who earn less than £15,000 may well conclude it is not worth saving at all and opt out of the nest scheme.

I predict a future Government will make saving for a pension compulsory before very long.

  • The value of universal benefits will be eroded.   This has already been started by linking benefit increases to consumer price index rather than retail price index.   It is just a matter of time and political opportunity before winter fuel allowance, the free bus pass and free TV licences are removed from wealthier pensioners.   This is probably a good thing, but will it be matched by a corresponding increase in the universal state pension.   The illusory £140 pension (see “THE £140 PENSION ILLUSION” in the TAG CLOUD).
  • Free health care will gradually shrink.  For the elderly it has been an issue for many years.   In theory health care is free but in many cases it has not been available.  Equally the care of elderly people in the NHS has a bad reputation which discourages people from coming forward.
  • Free social care will become a thing of the past.  It is already limited only to critical cases in most areas of the country.   When the Dilnot report is finally accepted in principle, it will cap total care costs, although it has subtly added in a £10,000 annual accommodation charge.   I also predict the cap will be around £50,000 rather than Dilnot’s £35,000 and that the qualification for care cost will be tightly proscribed.

In Conclusion:

  • You’re going to have to look after yourself.  The state pension will cover a subsistence level of retirement.   Any quality of life or health and social care support you need will have to be funded through your own resources.

So if you’re still young, start saving at least 20% of your earnings every year towards your eventual retirement at 70 plus.

If you are already retired consider using whatever equity you have – most obviously your house to buy yourself the life style and support you want or need.

THE SELF-WELFARE STATE

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“Pension Crystal Ball” 1

Posted on October 14, 2012 by john graham

This is the first of a series of blogs on pensions which you can find in the TAG CLOUD under the heading “PENSIONS CRYSTAL BALL”.

Predicting how much money you will need to pay for your retirement is more and more difficult as we live longer.  Here are some of the issues you need to forecast before you have an answer:-

  • How long am I going to live?
  • How long will my partner live?
  • What will I need for health care in my advanced years given that the NHS is short of cash and not renowned for looking after older people?
  • What will I need for the years of leisure between retirement and my final moments?  My bucket list of things to do?
  • How much of a legacy do I want to leave?

These are imponderable questions, even at 65 when you’re setting out on retirement.  How much more difficult are they when you are just starting work?  Then you have even more questions to answer:-

  • What career lies ahead of me?
  • What other demands will there be on my money – family / education / housing?

And biggest of all:-

  • What will happen to inflation over my life time?
  • Will the Government change the rules on taxing pension savings?
  • Will the Government change the retirement age?

You certainly cannot rely on the Government.  They have a terrible track record of predicting the cost of anything.  The only thing you can be sure of with their estimates is that they won’t be enough – just look at the Olympics !     With pensions for themselves and their staff, they don’t event try to save, they just rely on being able to increase taxes.

The pensions market is in freefall at the moment and the current economic crisis is likely to lead to more changes in legislation around retirement.  Answering the above questions was always difficult; it is about to get harder still.

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“Biscay Balance”

Posted on October 7, 2012 by john graham

A life on the ocean waves of our Summer sea voyage, see “MEDITERRANEAN REFLECTIONS” in the “TAG CLOUD” for earlier bogs on this theme.

Exhausted by the first day of activities, I contemplate a rest with just some bingo —-  I settle for reading the newspapers instead.

Up until now the sea has been calm, but we are about to enter the notorious Bay of Biscay.  The Captain reassuringly tells us winds are only moderate and there is only a slight swell of   5 feet.  It sounds quite a lot to me but I still haven’t completed my beginners’ bridge class,  so who am I to question the Captain’s 40 years at the mast judgement.

As the day goes on the wind seems to get up a bit and there are lots of little white caps on the waves.  I did hear a “man overboard” drill earlier on but we were assured it was only a safety exercise.  Not entirely reassured by that.

It is getting a bit more bumpy now and walking about is rather more challenging than it was yesterday.  To be on the safe side, the decks have been closed, so there should not be any more “men overboard” scares.

At just this moment I read a timely report in the paper.   Apparently researchers at Duquesne University on dry land in the U.S.of A, did a study of young and old mice and found that older mice had poorer balance.   They then gave them Resveratol – a chemical found in red wine – and somewhat surprisingly their balance improved.   So much so, that they were able to walk along a narrow beam.   Next year they will be entering them in the U.S.A. Olympics gymnastics team !

As the winds in the Bay of Biscay reached gale force 10 and the waves rise to 25 feet,sea spray crashed onto our deck 7 balcony.   I took to the red wine, but it didn’t seem to help.  Goodness knows how the line dancers are getting on.

The research also pointed out that falls are one of the leading causes of death in the over 75’s.   So sailing in the Bay of Biscay in a force 10 gale may not be such a good idea unless you can consume copious quantities of red wine,  have at least an Olympic bronze medal in gymnastics  and have passed your beginners’ bridge class.

CHH..EE..RS

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“Antiquarian Olympics”

Posted on September 27, 2012 by john graham

This is a continuation of my Summer holiday blogs.  For other blogs on this theme, click on “MEDITERRANEAN REFLECTIONS” in the TAG CLOUD.

From the first day at sea and the floating retirement village activity programme begins today.   A choice for everyone.   You just need to do it on wobbly legs.   The Zimmers and wheelchair users could for once have a marked advantage 🙂

Here are some of the activity options:-

Water Colour Art – there is certainly no shortage of water but there is no landscape on the horizon to copy.  I guess it will have to be “still life” — on a wobbly sea.

Beginners’ Bridge Class – it is very nice of the Captain to let us have a go at steering.  I wonder if the ship will have to display L plates.

Line Dance Class – a wobbly line doing ring-a-ring-a-roses – one step, Texas Two Step and they all fall down.

Computer Classes – “iPods, iPads and iPhones” or should it be “Pea Pods, incontinence pads and emergency call phones”.

Short Mat Bowls – that should be interesting.  The bowls could go anywhere in this swell – who wins, the sailors or the sea depends on the shipping forecast ?

Skin Care for the next generation – an unfortunate title – is it about embalming? – will it be well attended?

Make fine hair look fabulous – I think they have left it a little bit late for me 😦

That’s enough activity for one day!   I never could keep up with adventureous older people.

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“The Buzzing Bridge”

Posted on September 25, 2012 by john graham

Arrived at Lisbon in Portugal.   Early morning spectacular skies as dawn breaks, red colours the edges of the silver clouds.

A distant view of a sleek-looking suspension bridge framing the harbour approach.  Marred only by the usual paraphernalia of all big ports – oil tanks, gas silos and spiky cranes.

As we get nearer there is a distant hum.    Then closer still it’s now a whine.   When we pass under the bridge, traffic tyres on a metal road, high in the sky, become a tuneless but loud brass band played by cars, coaches, lorries and the occasional train.   Just to add to the cacophony the bridge is under the flight path of Lisbon Airport, so extra crescendo is added by jets landing.

The seventeenth largest suspension bridge in the world, built in 1966 called variously The Salazar Bridge,  The 25 April Bridge,  The Tagus Bridge and ominously   “The Bridge”.

When this megalith was constructed, I wonder if the designer knew of the blight he was about to bequeath the thousands of people who live below the Buzzing Bridge.

It beggars belief that this sound mayhem could be inflicted on so many people.

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“One Man’s Legacy” – 3

Posted on September 23, 2012 by john graham

For earlier blogs in this series, click on “MEDITERRANEAN REFLECTIONS” in the TAG CLOUD.  This is a continuation of my visit to Sagrada Familia and illustrates the rear elevation of the Basilica which is a modern intepretation of Gaudi’s original designs.

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“One Man’s Legacy” – 2

Posted on September 20, 2012 by john graham

When I finally managed to get inside the Sagrada Familia Basilica in Barcelona, 46 years after I had first visited it, this is the miracle that I found.

For earlier blogs in this series, click on “MEDITERRANEAN REFLECTIONS” in the TAG CLOUD.  This next group of slides illustrate the interior which completely blew me away.  It’s nothing like I have ever seen before and must make this Basilica one of the best buildings I have ever seen.  The interior is like an enchanted forest.

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“One Man’s Legacy” – 1

Posted on September 18, 2012 by john graham

The first port of call on our Mediterranean cruise was Barcelona.  For earlier blogs in this series click on the TAG CLOUD on “MEDITERRANEAN REFLECTIONS”.  I decided to take a step back to 46 years earlier in my life ——— the days of England winning the World Cup.

I went to Sheffield University in 1966 to study architecture.   I was immediately enchanted by the Art Nouveau movement, mainly as a result of some excellent history of architecture lectures by Professor John Tarn.   That fascination has lasted with me to this day.   One architect in particular stood out in my mind – Antonio Gaudi.

A year later on only my second big adventure abroad, I travelled down through France to Spain in my Dad’s car, with my friend Alan Dodd driving.   We ended up by chance in Barcelona to be greeted by the remarkable Holey Holy Spires of the Sagrada Familia Basilica.   You could spot it from miles away singing “come and see me, I am different”.    And it was certainly was.

Still under construction after nearly 100 years, it was covered in scaffolding.   The floorscape was littered with chunks of stone waiting to be carved.   It was no hive of activity, there were only a few workers around, because money was running out to complete the building.   Gaudi died in 1926 but they were still working faithfully to his designs.   No straight lines anywhere, holes piercing the structure at every opportunity, soaring parabolic arches – nothing like the formal rigid structures of the gothic cathedrals I had seen before.   A masterpiece of engineering that takes your breath away.

Now 45 years later on my Mediterranean cruise, I am returning for the first time.

As you drive through Barcelona, you can see signs of Gaudi’s influence almost everywhere you go.  Even on some of the main streets crowds of admirers draw attention to his buildings.

But it is not until you approach the Basilica of Sagrada Familia that you really appreciate the full magnificence of the Gaudi’s genius.

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Nothing and everything has changed.    It is still under construction with many years to go.  Much has been added but my memory cannot recall what exactly is new or old.   The wonderment is still there and the progress immeasurably increases the experience.

What a tour de force from just one man!   Gaudi had a unique vision but it took and will still take a team of workers and supporters to help him realise it.

What you can see on this blog is just the outside of the building which is all I could see forty odd years ago because visitors weren’t allowed inside the building which was still under construction.  My next blog will talk about my experience 46 years later.

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“Mediterranean Reflections”

Posted on September 16, 2012 by john graham

This is the start of a series of blogs about a summer cruise through the Mediterranean – somewhere I have visited quite a lot during my life.  This is not a travel log, there are better sites for that, nor is it a diary.  It is just what seemed to me to be different as the years have passed.

In the embarkation lounge what struck me first was the average age of the passengers.  It must have been 75 judging by the walking sticks, Zimmer frames, wheelchairs and mobility scooters.  Good for them – I always said “age is no barrier to achievement”.

Setting out from Southampton, nothing much to report just four days at sea before we reach land.  No relatives waving goodbye from the pier.  No Falkland Island brass band farewells.  Just a photographer who will smile for us as we board and charge us 25 dollars for the photo in a paper frame.

Goodbye to two weeks watching the Olympics — the antiquarian Olympics start here!

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“What’s the Password?”

Posted on September 2, 2012 by john graham

When I was very young, that was the question you were asked before you could enter our den.  If you didn’t give the right answer you were not allowed in and you could be pelted with four bombs.

Now, in this more advanced technological age, passwords are the key to everything.  Whoa betide you if you forget them – you can be locked out of your office, your car, your suitcases, your computer and even your house.  In these security conscious days when we are almost always on “amber alert”, you need to keep in your head loads of codes, a plethora of passwords and a concoction of combinations.

The technology gap, far from making life simpler, is making things more complicated. (See earlier post on this theme by clicking on “Technology Gap” in the TAG CLOUD).

My first experience of combination locks was when I was about 12 and I got a new bike.  I bought a Bass Four Digit Lock and used 1234 as the code.  Nobody ever broke the code, but then again I didn’t use the lock very often and eventually I lost the lock somewhere.  Nobody ever stole my bike, even though it didn’t have a lock anymore.  I think that experience coloured my view of security and locks ever since.

Now about to go on holiday there is security every step of the way.  All our suitcases have combination locks and I am no longer allowed to use an easy to remember code like 1234.  Finding a clean shirt can take hours :-(.

Leaving the house is a challenge, setting the burglar alarm with a different code is simple enough as long as you don’t accidentally press a wrong number.  If you do, you have a panicky 30 seconds to remember how to cancel it or all your neighbours are looking out their windows.  If you are really unlucky, a police car will eventually arrive, give you a crime number and tell you that you have been burgled.  No further investigation required.

Now, if you want some foreign currency on your holiday, you need to ring up your bank and arrange it, but first of all you have to answer twenty questions to identify yourself.  Where were you born?  What’s your mother’s maiden name?  What’s our favourite flower?  Who is your favourite football manager?  What is the fourth letter of your middle name? —- get any of these wrong and you do not pass go and collect £200, you go to jail!  All this, in spite of the fact that once you give them your postcode, they know all about you.

Now, if you need any information about your trip, you are into the cyber code world of computers.  No such thing as a simple code here.  Computers are permanently on red alert.  You need a password to get a password.  Four digits went out years ago, now you need six or even eight digits, although some of them must be letters and some of the letters need to be capitals.  And by the way, it is best to change your password every month.

No wonder older people, like me, are getting left behind.  We can’t switch on our computer, we can’t get money from our bank, we are unable to unlock our suitcases.  We are locked out of our own houses.

All we can do is get on our bike.

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